Jun 10 2008
It looks bleak, but there’s still time
By Bud L. Ellis
braves.today.com
ATLANTA – Suffice to say, the good people of Braves Nation are in a bad mood.
Something about being one out away from moving within 2 ½ games of first place, only to see your second baseman drop the final out of the game, starting a weekend tailspin that ends with your squad 6 ½ games out of the division lead.
And then, you face the prospects of going on a 10-game road trip, where your team has lost 21 of 28 games this season. That trip includes three games with the best team in baseball, another team that is in first place in its division, and a third team that is one of the better hitting squads in baseball.
Easy to see why my blogs, my conversations, my segment on the radio Monday afternoon were tinged with negativity. The Braves are on the verge of totally tumbling out of the race in the NL East, and I even caught myself glancing at the (gasp!) wild-card standings this morning – the news there isn’t great, either; the Braves are 5 ½ games out and tied with Houston.
So what’s the point, you might say? Why even pay attention as Tom Glavine climbs the bump at Wrigley Field tonight for the opener of a three-game set with the Cubs, who at 40-24 own baseball’s best record? Shouldn’t we just begin the countdown to the Dogs’ season opener, or focus on who the Thrashers are going to hire as coach, or whether or not the Hawks can resign both Josh Smith and Josh Childress?
Yes, I’m in a foul mood, but the last time I checked, there were 98 games left on the schedule. I haven’t given up hope just yet, because …
This team, for all its flaws, still is pretty good: Isn’t it amazing Atlanta is 7-21 on the road, 1-6 in extra-inning contests, 3-17 in one-run decisions, and yet it still is at .500 on the season? Part of that is thanks to the still-impressive 25-11 record at Turner Field (dented by closing the last homestand with four losses in five games). The Braves have proven they can play good baseball against good teams, and even though the vast majority of their stellar play has come at home, you have to think at some point, they’re going to start playing better on the road, too.
Its timing may stink, but the offense can hit: The Braves are second in the NL in average (.282), third on on-base percentage (.352), third in walks (256) and fifth in slugging percentage (.427). The numbers don’t lie: This team is hitting; just not at the right time. One can’t help but think all those wasted opportunities in late-and-close situations will correct itself over the rest of the season. Losing Mark Kotsay has hurt; hopefully, his back is making progress and he may come off the DL at some point during the road trip. Not having Kotsay and Matt Diaz has thrown rookies Gregor Blanco and Josh Anderson into the mix, depleting what was a deep bench.
Jeff Francoeur is too good to struggle like this: I know, the blogs and talk shows are buzzing about the subpar performance of the Gwinnett wunderkid. Since May 2, it’s been tough sledding for Frenchy: a .238 average, nearly as many strikeouts (32) as hits (34) and just 17 RBIs in 36 games. It’s even worse in late-and-close games, where Francoeur is hitting just .138 (4-for-29) with four RBIs this season. His aggressiveness works against him when he’s slumping, but Francoeur is too talented to scuffle like this all season.
For all the injuries, the pitching hasn’t been bad: The recent struggles of Blaine Boyer (7.36 ERA in June) and Manny Acosta (two losses, two blown saves and a staggering 23.60 ERA in his past five appearances) are a result of overuse by Bobby Cox. Still, the Braves rank second in the NL in ERA (3.70) and have given up the fewest hits in the league (515). Given the fact John Smoltz and Peter Moylan are gone for the season, Mike Hampton hasn’t pitched at all at the big-league level, and Rafael Soriano and Glavine have spent time on the DL, those numbers are all the more impressive. Jeff Bennett, Jair Jurrjens, Tim Hudson, Jorge Campillo, Will Ohman and Jo-Jo Reyes have kept this pitching staff going, and Boyer and Acosta have pitched well for most of the season.
Help could be on the way: He’s just 53 weeks removed from Tommy John surgery, but Mike Gonzalez is healthy and probably a few days away from being activated. The Braves will be holding their breath the lefty can grab hold of the closer’s role, which would stabilize the turbulent order of things in the bullpen – and hopefully keep Cox from totally torching Boyer, Acosta, Bennett and Ohman. Getting Kotsay back into the lineup allows Cox to move Kelly Johnson back to the seventh spot, and puts a veteran stick behind Yunel Escobar. Charlie Morton is tearing it up at Triple-A Richmond, and while thrusting a rookie who is approaching his career high in innings into the midst of a pennant race may sound foolish, would it be better to hold out hope Hampton can return? Even more foolish is counting on Soriano for anything at this point; better to disable him and his troublesome elbow for the foreseeable future, unless he proves to be more reliable than he was this past weekend.
Treading water right now is OK: A baseball season is long in the tooth, full of peaks and valleys. While it’s true the Braves can’t sink much lower in the standings and hold out any hope of playing meaningful baseball in August and September, a 6 ½ game deficit is not the end of the world. But to stay afloat, the Braves have to play better than .250 ball away from home. A 2-8 road trip probably dooms this team for 2008. A 6-4 trip – tough as that may be to accomplish – in all likelihood keeps Atlanta where it’s at in the standings. And the schedule does feature some favorable series, particularly after the current road trip ends. During its final 88 games, Atlanta plays three with Colorado (.381 winning percentage), three with Seattle (.359), three with San Diego (.431), seven with San Francisco (.453) and 10 with Washington (.385). And, the Braves do have nine games left with Philly – although six of those are in September.
There still is time, but one more bad road trip (or homestand) probably nails shut the coffin for this season. But if that happens, we still have this:
Chipper Jones and his potential magic season: Even if the Braves fall totally out of it, Jones and the season he’s having is worth watching. I still don’t think he’s going to hit .400 – there’s a reason nobody’s done it since Ted Williams hit .406 in 1941; it’s darn hard to do over the course of six months. But still, Jones – who will miss at least the first two games of this trip with a slight tear in his right quadriceps muscle – and his flirtation with history is enough to keep us tuned in and going to the ballpark.
What we’re seeing is a Hall of Fame career validated. Jones hit his 400th career homer last week, now has surpassed 2,200 career hits (he has 2,209 entering the road trip) and continues to get better with age. Jones hit .337 at age 35 last season, the highest average of his career and the ninth time he’s topped .300. Unless he totally falls apart over the final 3 ½ months, Jones will finish above .300 for a 10th time. This season, he’s at .420 with a .504 on-base percentage and .680 slugging percentage. It’s one thing to see those types of numbers in late April. To see them as we enter the middle of June is something else altogether. As long as Jones flirts with the magic .400 this season, the eyes of the baseball world will stay on him … even if his team is looking ahead to 2009.
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