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Jul 18 2008

Braves at the Break: It’s now or never for this team

Published by bud006 at 6:38 am under Braves analysis Edit This

Editor’s note: Braves at the Break is a four-part look at the 2008 Atlanta Braves at the All-Star break. The series began Tuesday and concludes today with a look at what has to go right in the second half.

By Bud L. Ellis
braves.today.com

ATLANTA – The time has come.

Forget the injuries. Forget players being thrust into roles they couldn’t have imagined being in when this season started. Forget the one-run losses, the extra-inning failings, the miserable showing on the road. Forget all of it.

The time has come for the Atlanta Braves to wake the heck up and start playing the type of baseball we’ve been waiting for and – for the most part, bemoaning the absence of – so far this season. Atlanta opens the second half of its 2008 schedule tonight at Turner Field against Washington. Sixty-seven games remain, and for the Braves, it’s now or never if Atlanta plans on battling for the NL East title.

Sitting in fourth place at 45-50 on the season and 6 ½ games out of first, the Braves don’t have time on their side. It’s either put-up, or shut-up. How do they turn it around? Here are four things that have to go right for the Braves in the second half, or else 2009 will come earlier than anybody in Braves Nation expected:

– Get offensive, Tex and Frenchy
Chipper Jones is having the best season of his career. Yunel Escobar and Brian McCann have been very, very good. The rest of the offense? About as consistent as trying to predict where those afternoon thunderstorms in summer will pop up, and most of the blame lies at the feet of two big bats that haven’t produced consistently enough. Mark Teixeira is having a nice season, true, but he needs to perform like he wants to become one of the premier players in the major leagues. Jeff Francoeur is having a horrible season, and he needs to perform like he wants to stay in the major leagues. The two major focus points for this team starting the second half will be on Tex and Frenchy and, whether it’s fair or not, how they play the first two weeks after the break will go a long, long way in determining what the Braves do in advance of the July 31 trade deadline.

– Scale the wall, young hurlers
There is no denying the work done by Jair Jurrjens, Jo-Jo Reyes, Charlie Morton and Jorge Campillo has kept the Braves hanging around in the East, just close enough to keep from shifting the focus to 2009 just yet. But each of the four, all of whom possess less than one year of major-league starting experience, figures to surpass career highs in innings pitched, and that can’t be overlooked as the dog days arrive. If the seven- and eight-inning efforts start turning into four- and five-inning outings, the Braves are in deep, deep trouble. And there is no way of predicting when each youngster will hit the wall, and whether or not they will be able to push beyond it.

– Win when it counts
Sure, they all count, especially when you’re 6 ½ games out with 67 to go. But the Braves have 27 games left against the three teams ahead of them in the East: the Phillies, Marlins and Mets. So far, Atlanta is 13-14 against those three; seven of those wins came against New York while the Mets were spiraling out of control. New York has righted the ship now (winning its 10th-straight game last night to move into a tie for first with Philly), and beating the Mets won’t be as easy as it was during the first two months of the season. Of course, the Phils have owned the Braves: Atlanta is 1-8 against Philly in 2008, including 0-6 at Turner Field. The Braves play their six most important games of the season next week – three at Florida, three at Philly. Atlanta has to play well on that trip, or else any hopes it has of contending likely will be dashed.

– Believe, then achieve
Too often in the first half, the Braves looked like a team playing not to lose, instead of a team playing to win. It’s a far cry from what the Braves of yesteryear did. Those Braves teams knew what they needed to do, then went out and ripped off six wins in a row or won nine out of 11 to take control. The Braves of old oozed with that quiet confidence that they could win in any situation. These Braves have to believe they can do this, and then go out and make it happen on the field. The time for talking about it, for analyzing what’s transpired, is finished. The Braves have to play like champions in the second half if they want to be champions when the next 67 games are finished.

So, can they do it? While I think it’d be foolish to say no given how mediocre the East has been this season, one would be remiss to think the Braves can continue to muddle along as they have for the past seven weeks and stay in contention. I’ve seen just enough glimpses from this team to think it’s capable of the two-week stretch of great baseball it will take to vault Atlanta to the doorstep of first place, but with the Marlins and Phillies waiting next week, the Mets on a roll and the trade deadline looming, it has to start tonight.

On deck
Braves vs. Nationals

7:35 p.m. today, Turner Field

The Skinny: To start the second half, the Braves switched their announced rotation, moving Jurrjens back a day and allowing ace Tim Hudson (9-7, 3.13 ERA) to climb the bump for the series opener. Huddy, who fired a perfect inning of relief Sunday against the Padres, sparkled in his last start July 7 at Los Angeles, allowing four hits and two runs in seven innings against the Dodgers. Of course, the Braves didn’t score any runs – an all-too-common theme – and Timmy took the loss. He faced the Nats three times in the first three weeks of the season, going 1-0 with three runs allowed in 13 2/3 innings. For the Nats, who have baseball’s worst record at 36-60, right-hander Tim Redding (7-3, 3.85) also has been hurt with a lack of run support. He beat the Astros July 11 for his seventh victory, breaking a string of nine consecutive no-decisions.

—30—

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