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Archive for the 'Braves analysis' Category

Mar 03 2009

A week into camp, 10 things to know about the Braves

Published by bud006 under Braves analysis Edit This

By Bud L. Ellis
braves.today.com

ATLANTA — That little touch of winter that swooped through the home of the Braves is nothing more than a fleeting memory this morning.

If you look really close in the shady spots, you might see a little bit of snow hanging on for dear life. In our front yard, the snowman my kids and I built during Sunday’s snowstorm – a 4-inch episode that was straight out of Currier and Ives – is nothing more than a small blob of ice.

Yep, winter made one appearance and now is gone. Back to pursuits of spring, and back to Lake Buena Vista. Six days into spring training for the Atlanta Braves, here are 10 takeaways from the action thus far:

Josh Anderson looks ready for opening day: The Braves’ center fielder of the present is hitting .400, half of his hits are for extra bases, and he’s stolen a base.

Jordan Schafer looks close, but needs a little more seasoning: The Braves’ center fielder of the future is hitting .273 with a homer, but has five strikeouts in 11 at-bats. (“close, but needs a little more seasoning.” … am I talking baseball, or cooking?)

Don’t be alarmed at this point about Jeff Francoeur: OK, he’s hitting .100 (1-for-10). But he has drawn two walks (including a five-pitch walk during which Jeff didn’t swing once) and has zero strikeouts. Yes, he’s left some runners on base, but give it a couple of weeks before we really start worrying.

That Tommy Hanson fellow is pretty good: The line from his first appearance wasn’t earth-shaking (two hits, two runs in two innings). But in watching him pitch on ESPN last Thursday, you could see the nasty assortment of pitches the 22-year-old phenom possesses. High-90s heater. Big breaking curve. Filthy slider. He toes the slab today against Panama’s World Baseball Classic team.

Speaking of which, the WBC stinks as far as timing: Several Braves now have left camp to play for their country, which is a noble thing to do. Yet, you have to wonder if the U.S. makes it all the way to the finals, will that have an impact on Chipper Jones and Brian McCann, both of whom figure to play a lot of innings for Team USA.

To this point, there is no clear-cut favorite for the left-handed specialist job: Eric O’Flaherty had a rough first outing, then bounced back with a solid inning Sunday. Boone Logan threw a perfect inning in his only appearance thus far.

We do know Jeff Ridgway probably isn’t in the mix for the left-handed specialist job: Dude made an absolute mess in his appearance Sunday. This is the same dude who hit a batter with the bases loaded in extra innings in Chicago to lose a game last June.

Derek Lowe was better than his line indicated: The Braves’ ace gave up five hits in two innings, including three in a row to start the second inning Saturday. But after he stopped throwing just fastballs and began mixing in offspeed stuff, he was fine. And, no walks with three strikeouts in two innings works just fine.

Kenshin Kawakami impressed: His fastball only tops out around 90, but the Japanese right-hander throws it with movement, and his offspeed pitches are really good.

Only five more weeks of this stuff: Man, spring training is long this season (thanks, WBC). Feels like we’re never going to get to opening day.

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Feb 28 2009

Kawakami sharp as Braves power past Bucs

By Bud L. Ellis
braves.today.com

Braves 5, Pirates 2 (exhibition)

Top of the Order: Japanese import Kenshin Kawakami threw two shutout innings, and Chipper Jones and Greg Norton added home runs as the Braves won their second consecutive game in Grapefruit League play.

The Good: Let’s start with Kawakami, who impressed by allowing just a bloop hit in two stellar innings, striking out one. Jones hit a two-run homer in the fifth, one inning after Norton blasted a solo shot. Brian McCann and Jeff Francoeur each walked twice. Josh Anderson, the frontrunner for the center field spot, had a hit and scored once. Omar Infante drove in a run, as did Brandon Jones. After Kawakami, the bullpen was solid. Buddy Carlyle struck out three in two scoreless innings. One day after pitching phenom Tommy Hanson made his debut, another highly touted pitching prospect, Kris Medlen, wiggled out of trouble in his one inning.

The Bad: Not much to report from a solid victory. Anthony Lerew lost the shutout by throwing a wild pitch, finishing his inning with two hits allowed and two walks. The Braves left 13 runners on base. Medlen walked two before settling down. Matt Diaz grounded into two double plays.

View from the Sports Garage: So with no audio feed from Bradenton, there was no listening to Kawakami’s debut. But from all accounts, he pitched well. Two innings, 18 of his 29 pitches for strikes, worked down in the zone well. Pretty good offensive performance. Nice win. – BLOGGER NOTE: With some severe weather, flickering power and sketchy Internet connection, keeping this one real short. That, and the Braves play in about five hours. Speaking of today …

Next
Braves at Blue Jays

1:05 p.m. today, Dunedin

The Skinny: Following Kawakami’s debut, the Braves roll out another of their newly acquired pieces of the starting rotation today. Derek Lowe makes his spring debut for Atlanta. Lowe features that heavy sinker that’s helped him pitch 200 innings and win double-digit games consistently since 2002.

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Feb 25 2009

Grapefruit, anyone? Braves open exhibition season today

Published by bud006 under Braves analysis Edit This

By Bud L. Ellis
braves.today.com

ATLANTA — We’ve made it, Braves Nation.

Well, OK, the season doesn’t officially start until April 5 in Philadelphia, another Sunday Night Baseball season-opening engagement that hopefully will turn out better than last season’s lid-lifter in Washington.

But today in Lakeland, the Braves will play a baseball game, their first since losing to Houston in the season finale last Sept. 28, capping a 90-loss season and launching an offseason that was anything but mundane.

Yes, the guys who will be on the field for most of the 2009 regular season won’t be in the lineup very long this afternoon in the Grapefruit League opener at Joker Marchant Stadium. A couple of them, defending NL batting champion Chipper Jones and newly acquired outfielder Garret Anderson, won’t make the short trip down I-4 from Disney.

Still, it’s a baseball game in which the Braves will play. It’s a game that counts for something, even if it’s the opening game of an exhibition season that, most likely, the final standings will be forgotten by Memorial Day.

Nonetheless, this is a step forward a day all baseball fans look toward during those cold winter nights. And the Braves experienced more than their fair share of choppy seas and ice storms since the end of last season, but when you look at the assemblage gathered at Lake Buena Vista, I think you have to be optimistic.

I know, optimism is a prerequisite of this time of year. Everybody feels good. Everybody is upbeat.

But you should feel good about this team, for two primary reasons:

This roster is much better than last season’s, built for the long haul of a 162-game season with good depth as far as the eye can see.

The journey to October begins, in a sense, this afternoon in Central Florida.

Braves Nation, here we go.

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Feb 24 2009

One man’s look at Braves’ 2009 lineup card

Published by bud006 under Braves analysis Edit This

By Bud L. Ellis
braves.today.com

ATLANTA — OK folks, time to put on your thinking caps.

The roster retooling of the Atlanta Braves is complete, or complete from the sense of now we have a good idea who is going to be with the team when they open the 2009 season five weeks from Sunday.

So, you think you’re good enough to be a major league manager, eh? Well, one of the things skippers do is fill out a lineup card. Let’s image we’re Bobby Cox and we’re penciling in the eight guys who will make up the Braves’ primary lineup for 2009 (I say primary because I’m not thinking about Chipper Jones missing time with an injury, not trying to balance a Garret Anderson/Matt Diaz platoon in left field, not worrying about getting Omar Infante and Martin Prado at-bats, not resting Brian McCann, etc.).

No, for our purposes today, I’m playing the role of Cox – minus the cheerleading, the tobacco spit, the bad knees – and filling out my lineup. Here’s mine:

1. Josh Anderson, center field: OK, so I get Jordan Schafer is the second coming and he’s probably going to be the man in center before all is said and done, perhaps by midseason, and possibly by opening day. But for now, I’m going with Anderson, who swiped 10 bases while hitting .294 in 40 games last season. Flies like the wind. Can he cut down on the strikeouts (33 in 136 at-bats) and improve on that .200 average against leftys from a year ago? If so, dude could be quite a nice “fill-in” until Schafer gets a little more seasoning in the minors.

2. Yunel Escobar, shortstop: Perfect No. 2 hitter who got 291 of his 514 at-bats at this spot last season. Good contact hitter who has decent power and figures to get better … people forget last season was his first full go-around in the bigs. One of the best young shortstops in the game.

3. Chipper Jones, third base: Only 10 of his plate appearances last season came outside of the third hole. The defending NL batting champion is locked in here … unless/until he gets hurt.

4. Brian McCann, catcher: After the Braves dealt Mark Teixeira in late July, Mac slid into the cleanup slot, finishing the season hitting .309 with six homers and 33 RBIs in the four spot. Not the typical slugger you’d see batting cleanup, but this team doesn’t have a typical slugger. Good discipline at the plate, too, which helps because behind Mac I’m penciling in …

5. Jeff Francoeur, right field: I know, I can hear you howling now, and where to slot Frenchy was the hardest part of this exercise. But provided he rebounds even somewhat from his train wreck of a 2008, Frenchy fits here. He gives the Braves another good power, a 20-25 homer guy to go with Chipper and McCann. And, Jeff-ro did hit .322 in 258 at-bats in the fifth slot in 2007. Plus, putting Francoeur here splits up this left-handed heavy lineup, and having good hitters behind him – instead of tossing Jeff into the eight-hole, ahead of the pitcher’s spot – can’t hurt.

6. Garret Anderson, left field: Anderson hit .337 in 175 at-bats in the sixth slot for the Angels last season, and is a career .320 hitter in this spot (1,669 at-bats). Anderson could move up to cleanup, where he hit .283 last season. But nine of his 15 homers and 37 of his 84 RBIs in 2008 came batting sixth, where his OPS was .920. This is a good hitter, folks, and I like him here.

7. Kelly Johnson, second base: Dude hit everywhere for the Braves last season, but his work in the seventh spot was impressive — .303 in 76 at-bats, compared to .263 batting leadoff (114 at-bats) and .259 batting second (162 at-bats). Could drive in a ton of runs batting here with his ability to work the count. With a little more consistency, we’re talking about a guy who could hit .310 or higher.

8. Casey Kotchman, first base: Struggled mightily after the trade from the Angels, but Kotchman did finish 2008 at .272 with 14 homers and 74 RBIs, one season after batting .296 with 37 doubles. Has only 34 career at-bats in the eighth spot, but somebody’s got to hit here, and he’s a guy with a good stick who doesn’t strike out much (82 strikeouts the past two seasons combined).

There’s one man’s stab at the lineup. I’d like to see yours (the comments section can serve as your lineup card, if you’d like).

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Feb 23 2009

Adding Anderson final piece of Braves’ improved puzzle

Published by bud006 under Braves analysis Edit This

By Bud L. Ellis
braves.today.com

ATLANTA — The path which the Atlanta Braves followed in reshaping their roster the past four months reached more highs and lows than a roller coaster at Six Flags.

But now, for all intents and purposes, it’s done. The process is complete. A 90-loss team last season has been recrafted and repurposed for the season to come.

And these soon-to-be 36-year-old eyes, who have watched this franchise in the role of fan, sports writer and blogger for the past three decades, like what they see.

The landing of Garret Anderson to join Matt Diaz in left field is the final piece of a puzzle Frank Wren has worked all offseason to finish. As we all know, Wren reached for a couple of pieces that in the end, didn’t want to work their way into the Braves’ framework.

And the way things have turned out, that’s OK.

Sure, having A.J. Burnett would have been nice. But I’m glad it’s Derek Lowe at the top instead.

Yes, Rafael Furcal coming back home would’ve been a nice story, and a Furcal-Yunel Escobar middle infield combination would’ve been dynamite. But Kelly Johnson figures to be better in the field at second base this season, his third playing the position, and Josh Anderson could turn out to be a very good leadoff man.

Of course, having a future Hall of Famer in Ken Griffey Jr. play with Diaz in left field would have generated excitement and buzz. But face it: Garret Anderson produces comparable, if not better numbers, than Junior.

So this is where the Braves are at, with two days to go until the Grapefruit League season opens Wednesday. I like the starting rotation, even more so if Kenshin Kawakami can make the adjustment to baseball on this side of the Pacific, and if Tom Glavine can give this team 25 starts.

I really like the bullpen. If Rafael Soriano (who is to throw live BP today) and Peter Moylan are healthy, they join Mike Gonzalez as a very formidable three-man crew for the eighth and ninth, fronted by Blaine Boyer and Manny Acosta.

And now, I really like the lineup. A platoon of Garret Anderson and Matt Diaz in left will generate plenty of offensive production, far exceeding the paltry numbers Atlanta’s left fielders posted last season (.258, six homers, 70 RBIs, 144 strikeouts). Anderson gives the Braves another power threat – no, not on the accord of 30 or 40 homers a year, but enough for 15 homers and 70 RBIs by himself.

In my mind, Wren has constructed a lineup that has just enough power – particularly if Jeff Francoeur bounces back from his wretched 2008 – and plenty of good hitters who will hit plenty of line drives. Critics of Garret Anderson bemoan the fact he doesn’t draw enough walks.

Folks, the dude is a career .296 hitter. He doesn’t strike out a whole bunch, and he doesn’t draw a lot of walks. He just hits doubles and homers and drives in runs. Put his numbers from last season – .293, 15 homers, 84 RBIs – into what the Braves already have, and you just don’t have another complimentary piece.

You have the final piece to a team that, as we sit here this morning, is good enough to win the NL East. Yes, the Braves need good health from the bullpen and the starters, and they must have Francoeur rediscover his 2005-07 form.

But with the roster reshaping now finished, what we have is a team that’s even with the Phillies and Mets in the NL East. Wren’s done a great job of rebuilding in four months.

We’re about to find out over the next seven months the results of his efforts.

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Feb 22 2009

REPORTS: BRAVES REACH DEAL WITH GARRET ANDERSON

Update 5:20 p.m.: The Braves have landed an outfielder … didn’t we say this the other day? Seriously folks, it’s being reported by MLB.com and the AJC that the Braves have reached a deal with Garret Anderson.

I’ve been all about signing Anderson, as I wrote Friday. Short burst just filed now, will have a full blog tomorrow morning on the subject.

Poor Brandon Jones, who I wrote about this morning … think he’s Gwinnett-bound now. But I really like this signing.

OK, here’s the burst. Back to a day off … kinda.

By Bud L. Ellis
braves.today.com

ATLANTA – The Braves capped a topsy-turvy week Sunday by finalizing a one-year deal with free-agent Garret Anderson on Sunday.

Anderson, 36, doesn’t generate the same buzz that the presence of Ken Griffey Jr. would have, but the production from the left-handed hitting outfielder is just what the Braves need to go with Matt Diaz in a left-field platoon.

Anderson hit .293 with 15 homers and 84 RBIs in 145 games for the Angels last season. Against right-handed pitching, Anderson hit .293 with 14 HRs and 69 RBIs, matching the number of homers Griffey hit off rightys last season while hitting 21 points higher and drive in 21 more runs.

Griffey, who reportedly had decided Tuesday to sign with the Braves, reversed course and agreed Wednesday night to play with Seattle, where the future Hall of Famer started his career. At that point, Braves’ officials looked content to let internal candidates Brandon Jones, Gregor Blanco and Josh Anderson to battle for the other half of the platoon.

But adding Anderson gives the Braves a guy who has hit between 14 and 17 home runs in each of the past five seasons, during which his batting average has ranged from .280 to .301. Anderson also plays solid defense, having committed just two errors in the past three seasons in left field (a span of 261 games).

Anderson teamed with Diaz, who hit over .300 with nine homers off leftys in 2007, figures to give the Braves a tremendous upgrade in production over last season. Atlanta generated just six home runs from left field last season, part of a woeful offensive outfield that hit a combined 27 home runs.

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Updated 3:11 p.m.: Remember us discussing Garret Anderson the other day? Sure you do. According to MLB.com, it appears the Braves may have stronger interest in the 36-year-old free-agent outfielder than the organization let on in the days following Ken Griffey Jr.’s return to Seattle.

Like I wrote after Junior decided to go back to the M’s, Anderson makes a heck of a lot of sense. We shall see, but folks this really makes sense. Now to this morning’s post:

By Bud L. Ellis
braves.today.com

ATLANTA — You gotta know for all those Braves fans who were steaming when Ken Griffey Jr. decided to head to Seattle, a certain 25-year-old native of Panama City, Fla., was smiling.

Had Griffey ended up a Brave, then certainly Brandon Jones would be opening the season in Gwinnett, and not Atlanta. Instead, Jones now finds himself with a pretty good opportunity to be the left-handed bat in the Matt Diaz platoon in left field, a position that generated a paltry six home runs in 2008.

Jones hit eight dingers at Triple-A Richmond and slugged his first and, to this point, only major-league homer June 14 against the Angels in Los Angeles. But his 2008 production was disappointing following a 2007 during which Jones combined for 19 homers, 100 RBIs and a .295 average between Richmond and Double-A Mississippi.

Jones hit just .260 in 95 games at Richmond last season, driving in just 52 runs. . He posted respectable numbers in his 41 games with the Braves last season, hitting .267 with that one homer and 17 RBIs. Defensively, he made just one error in left field in 93 games (59 with Richmond, 34 with Atlanta).

And unless the Braves make a late push for Garret Anderson or Jim Edmonds, I think – as we sit here three days before the start of the exhibition season – Jones has the best chance to join Diaz in left. Unless Jordan Schafer blows people away the next six weeks, Josh Anderson figures to start in center. Gregor Blanco led the Braves in stolen bases last season with 13, but his on-base percentage was brutal.

Jones would bring more power potential to the lineup than either Anderson or Blanco, but he’s going to have to earn the spot. Last season, it appeared Jones or Anderson would be the fourth outfielder. But both struggled in camp, and Blanco caught fire the final three weeks of March to win the spot.

It would serve Jones well to have a camp like Blanco did last spring. If Jones can convince the Braves of that during the next month and a half, he’s likely to be on the big-league roster come opening night. The Braves haven’t had a Jones patrol left field since Chipper moved back to third base during 2004.

But maybe Jones — Brandon, not Chipper — can give the Braves a bat with pop to go with Diaz in left.

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Feb 21 2009

Inking Glavine solidifies Braves’ starting rotation

Published by bud006 under Braves analysis Edit This

By Bud L. Ellis
braves.today.com

ATLANTA — It’s been quite a roller-coaster week for the Braves and their fan base, with Griffey-Gate swirling like a hurricane wobbling along the coast.

Funny how big the Griffey thing became, as it overshadowed the signing of another future Hall of Famer.

Yes, I know, Tom Glavine returning to the Braves was practically a given. Still, there wasn’t much buzz surrounding the one-year deal the 42-year-old left-hander inked Friday morning.

While I get the feeling some folks aren’t expecting much from the two-time Cy Young Award winner with whom Father Time and the injury bug caught up to in 2008, I’m of the belief if healthy, Tommy can really help this team.

(As an aside, as I write this late Friday night, MLB Network is showing Glavine winning his 300th career game for the Mets a couple of years ago … man, dude never looked right in that Mets’ uniform.)

Back to 2009 and back to Glavine in a Braves’ uniform. Certainly, his health is going to be a concern, as it would be for any 40-something pitcher coming off a season in which injury limited him to one start during the final three and a half months of the season. But when you look at Glavine and the fact he doesn’t rely on an explosive fastball, that his pitching motion is smooth and fluid, then it’s reasonable to expect Glavine can come back from the injuries that derailed his return season to Atlanta.

Glavine’s experience, the fact he throws it from the left side (he’s the only left-hander in the projected starting rotation), and the fact his best pitch – the changeup – isn’t contingent on throwing hard, all makes the addition of Glavine one that should have Braves Nation excited.

It’s hard to shake off the Griffey saga and its bloody aftermath, but it’s time to move ahead and get ready for the season. Count me as one of the excited ones that Glavine is back, and it’s not a pining for nostalgia that rushes the heartbeat.

No, it’s the fact that if indeed he is healthy – and throughout his rehab to this point it’s been good – Tom Glavine can really help this team in 2009. Once again, let’s focus on the guys who are here, and not the guys who are someplace else.

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Feb 20 2009

There’s still a free agent outfielder who could help Braves

Published by bud006 under Braves analysis Edit This

By Bud L. Ellis
braves.today.com

ATLANTA — Let’s see, now to determine where Ken Griffey Jr. should hit in the Braves’ lineup …

What’s that? … Seattle? … Really?

OK, kidding aside, who can blame me for still having The Kid on my mind? I mean, that’s all we wrote and talked about for nearly a week, and some 30 hours after Junior decided the pull of returning to the Mariners was stronger than being a Brave, Griffey remains front and center amid the thoughts of a seething Braves Nation.

But it’s history now, folks. Not pleasant history, mind you, but history nonetheless.

There’s a season to be played, and as I opined in the first hours after Junior’s decision, it still stands to be a good season for Atlanta. Granted, having that sweet swing of Griffey in the lineup against right-handers would’ve been great, great enough in my opinion to pull the Braves dead even with the Phillies and Mets in the tough NL East.

But even without Junior, the Braves still have a shot at winning the division. Seriously. This is a good team, and I tip my cap to Ken Rosenthal at FoxSports.com for this piece that says basically what I said yesterday on this here ol’ blog: This is a good team, so don’t obsess over those who didn’t want to be here.

Matt Diaz indeed is going to be part of the mix in left field, and provided Matthew bounces back from his miserable 2008 to display 2006-07 type production, that’s fine. But it’d be nice to have a stick to put in there with him that’s not named Brandon Jones or Gregor Blanco, which is why if I’m Frank Wren, I dip my toe once more into the free-agent pool.

Garret Anderson is a guy who hit the same number of home runs off right-handers as Griffey last season – 14 – while batting 21 points higher (.293 to .272) and driving in 21 more runs (69 to 48) against rightys. The 36-year-old left-handed hitter hit .293 in 145 games in 2008 for the Angels, finishing with 27 doubles, 15 homers, 84 RBIs and seven stolen bases.

No, Anderson isn’t a threat to go yard every time up like Junior. But he’s a contact hitter – just 77 strikeouts in 557 at-bats (12 fewer than Griffey, in 67 more ABs) – who would thrive hitting line drives into the gaps at Turner Field. He’s a career .296 hitter in 15 seasons, has totaled between 14 and 17 home runs in each of the past five seasons, and his defense in left field is just about perfect – only two errors in the past three seasons combined, a span totaling 261 games.

Jim Edmonds’ name also has been mentioned, but as much as I love his intensity and ferocity on the field, the 38-year-old may not have much left in the tank. Yes, I know he hit 20 homers last season, splitting time between the Padres and Cubs. But Edmonds hit just .235, striking out 82 times in 340 at-bats.

Or to look at it another way: In 2004, Edmonds hit .301. Since then, his average has dropped, to .263 in 2005, .257 in 2006, .252 in 2007 and .235 last season.

Anderson also hit .301 in 2004. His averages since: .283 in 2005, .280 in 2006, .297 in 2007 and .293 last season, all while playing solid defense and hitting his share of homers.

Anderson is a Scott Boars client. But with exhibition games beginning in less than a week, one has to think any offer is a good offer at this time. Derek Lowe is a Boras client who will don the tomahawk this season.

Perhaps Anderson will be, too. And the more I think about it, the more I think this is the guy the Braves should’ve been targeting all along.

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Feb 19 2009

Junior goes home; now it’s up to Braves who are here

Published by bud006 under Braves analysis Edit This

By Bud L. Ellis
braves.today.com

ATLANTA — Maybe when all was said and done, the lure of returning to the place where his star took off won the day.

Or maybe it was the extra incentive money kicked in at the last hour.

Or perhaps it’s my fault.

Awakening Saturday morning, I felt rejuvenated. All offseason, I wrote about the frustrations of the Atlanta Braves and their fan base as they attempted to re-tool the roster following the franchise’s worst season in 18 years. With the official start of spring training arriving Saturday and – with the exception of signing Tom Glavine – the reshaping of the roster complete, I allowed myself to think about how much fun it would be to write about the players the Braves actually employ, and not the ones they might.

Then Ken Griffey Jr. jumped into the picture, consuming the thoughts of Braves Nation for a dizzying five days that ended the same way the pursuits of Jake Peavy, A.J. Burnett and Rafael Furcal concluded:

No dice.

Griffey, who appeared poised to join the Braves and give Atlanta the power bat it sorely needs in the outfield, instead decided late yesterday to return to Seattle. In choosing the Mariners over the Braves, Junior heads back to the franchise where he made his major-league debut in 1989, where he blossomed into a superstar, where he helped save Major League baseball in that city with his stellar play in the 1990s.

And the Braves?

Left wondering what could have been. Again.

Just when you think this franchise has experienced every conceivable kick in the you-know-where the past 12 months, on and off the field, comes this: tantalizing close to landing a future Hall of Famer and the active leader in career home runs – so close, published reports early Tuesday afternoon (including one this site linked to) stated Griffey indeed had chosen Atlanta over Seattle – the Braves instead watched as Junior decided to accept the Mariners’ one-year, $2 million contract that provides him a chance to make an additional $2.5 million in incentives.

The frustration level of Braves Nation this early morning is immeasurable. That’s understandable. And while I know Braves fans across the nation are seething at Griffey’s decision – blaming everybody from Junior to Braves’ GM Frank Wren to newspaper reporters who ran with the Tuesday afternoon story – it’s important to try and step back and look at this from a holistic perspective.

Without Griffey, the Braves still have a gaping hole in left field, a position that generated a grand total of six homers in 2008. This we know. Granted, Matt Diaz should hit at least that many himself, and he did post back-to-back .300 seasons in 2006-07, before a miserable start and a severe knee injury wrecked his 2008 season.

And yes, anybody who thinks Brandon Jones or Gregor Blanco or Josh Anderson or Jordan Schafer will team with Diaz to produce what a Griffey/Diaz platoon would’ve generated is kidding themselves. I get all that.

But all is not lost, good denizens of Braves Nation – it just seems that way.

Yes, Peavy and Burnett and Furcal and now Griffey didn’t end up here. But Derek Lowe and Javier Vazquez and Kenshin Kawakami did (and Glavine will, of this I’m sure). Chipper Jones remains a Brave. So, too, does Brian McCann and Yunel Escobar and Jair Jurrjens. The bullpen looks strong – if healthy, Mike Gonzalez and Rafael Soriano and Peter Moylan form a three-headed monster that anchor what could be one of baseball’s best and deepest bullys. The bench is better with the addition of David Ross, the presence of Omar Infante and Martin Prado and Greg Norton, and the subtraction of Corky Miller, Brent Lillibridge and Ruben Gotay.

Kelly Johnson and Casey Kotchman are still here, and those guys could help make up for the lack of Griffey’s presence by taking the next step in their offensive development. Neither is going to be Griffey and what he could have provided, but further production from both – which I think is a distinct possibility – will only improve an Atlanta offense that on paper doesn’t look bad, even with the lack of a power bat in left.

Then, there’s the guy who mans the other corner outfield spot, the one who would’ve played opposite of Griffey. Jeff Francoeur, the golden child who fell flat on his face during 2008, has to bounce back. Plain and simple. No matter who plays left, Frenchy reaches 2009 at a crossroads.

Now that he’s avoided arbitration with the Braves, agreeing to a one-year, $3.375-million contract late last night, what will we see from Jeff-ro this season? Will it be the kid who looked like an emerging star in 2005-07, or the player who was so overmatched and loused up at the plate last season?

Time will tell. What we do know if Griffey will not be here, and we also know it’s not the end of the Braves’ hopes. Now, it’s up to Francoeur – and the guys who are here – to make us forget about the ones who aren’t.

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Feb 18 2009

REPORT: JUNIOR SPURNS BRAVES FOR MARINERS

Published by bud006 under Braves analysis Edit This

Updated 8:35 p.m.: Wow. Simply wow.

By Bud L. Ellis
braves.today.com

ATLANTA — In the end, The Kid decided to head home instead of play closer to home.

According to a report posted on the Seattle Post-Intelligencer just moments ago, Ken Griffey Jr. has spurned the Atlanta Braves’ overtures to play left field, opting instead to return to Seattle, the city where he rose to superstardom in the 1990s.

There is no confirmation from the Braves at this moment, but suffice to say this is a painful pill to swallow for a franchise that has now seen four prominent players say thanks but no things this offseason.

Griffey, a free agent who is the active home run leader with 611, looked like he was destined to return to Seattle late last week. But Griffey reached out to the Braves, and Atlanta entered the fray for the future Hall of Famer last weekend.

As late as Tuesday morning, it appeared Junior coming to Atlanta was a foregone conclusion. With a daughter playing AAU basketball in Atlanta and his family in Orlando, playing for the Braves seemed a natural fit for the 39-year-old. Several media outlets reported Griffey had accepted an offer from the Braves, reports that Griffey and his agent quickly refuted.

Now Griffey appears heading back to Seattle. That leaves the Braves with Matt Diaz anchoring one part of a platoon that looks nowhere near as robust as it did earlier today. Perhaps the Braves try to sign another free-agent, such as Garret Anderson, or attempt to revive trade talks with the Yankees for Nick Swisher or Xavier Nady.

Inside the organization, Brandon Jones and Gregor Blanco will vie for playing time with Diaz. But neither offers the power potential, the star quality, or the fan draw that Griffey does.

Those attributes appear heading for the Great Northwest, leaving the Braves to scratch their head. The move caps a frustrating offseason during which the Braves’ attempts at landing Jake Peavy, A.J. Burnett and Rafael Furcal fell through.

Even without landing those three and Griffey, the Braves have improved themselves markedly this offseason, hoping to rebound from a 90-loss season. Still, the pain of nearly having Griffey on the team will resonate with Braves Nation for quite some time. It’s a cruel kick in the stomach for a franchise that’s endured its share of heartache and frustration during the past 12 months.

Update 9:18 p.m.: I’m stunned, folks. Really. Not because Ken Griffey Jr. going to Seattle dooms the Braves to another 90-loss season. But part of the shock value is, for the past five days, I’ve thought about what Junior’s presence would mean to this team, from an offensive standpoint, from a promotional standpoint, from a leadership standpoint.

It was, as I wrote repeatedly, a perfect fit. Freaking perfect. And now? Well, you’ve still got Matt Diaz to rip it against leftys, but who is going to serve as the other half of the platoon? Doesn’t matter who it is. It won’t be Griffey, and the Braves find themselves still needing a power bat if they truly want to pull even with the Phillies and the Mets in the NL East.

And at this point, I don’t think the Braves are going to be able to find anybody with a lot of pop, unless they unload some prospects to the Yankees for Swisher or Nady. And I really don’t see them doing that. Frank Wren has — for all the big names who said no to this team — done a really good job of upgrading the roster, all without sacrificing the franchise’s top prospects (save Tyler Flowers, but he was a catcher, and he’s not moving McCann from behind the dish).

I can’t blame Griffey. He’s going back to a city where he helped save Major League Baseball. He’s going to have a chance to make more incentive money. No, I’m not hating on Griffey at all. Just one of those things.

And yet … I don’t blame you one bit for being frustrated, folks. I’m frustrated as all get out. I can’t wait for the season to begin, as this offseason continues giving its share of misery and frustrating events.

With that said, there’s plenty good that’s happened to this team this offseason, too. Lowe. Vazquez. Ross. Kawakami. Sign Glavine for the fifth spot, roll ‘em out there and let’s see what happens.

For now, for tonight, Braves Nation simmers at the boiling point. Ah, what could’ve been …

–30–

Update 1:12 p.m.: Twelve hours after the original blog was published, and no updates yet on Ken Griffey Jr. and his decision-making process.

However, an Atlanta TV station is reporting on its Web site that Braves’ officials believe Griffey may be leaning toward Seattle, the place where Junior became one of baseball’s biggest stars in the early 1990s.

And I certainly understand that, to a certain extent, the heartstrings must be tugging at Junior just a bit from the Great Northwest. I mean, you could argue he played a big role in saving Major League Baseball in that city. Those ties, even though he’s been gone for a decade, still run deep, I imagine.

When all is said and done, however, I still believe Griffey will sign with the Braves. It might not be announced today, though … heck, it might be tomorrow before Junior signs on the dotted line at the glacial pace this thing has taken. But at the end of the day — whatever day it is that Griffey signs — I think it’ll be Atlanta.

I’ve been wrong before, though. Time will tell, so stay tuned.

Now to this morning’s blog …

By Bud L. Ellis
braves.today.com

ATLANTA — Welcome to the early-morning hours of Wednesday … excuse the good denizens of Braves Nation if they’re exhausted.

The funny thing is, normally a fan base feels this spent in October, not February.

Alas, this is life as a Braves fan. It’s like living under the confines of an umbrella that, when removed, reveals either bright sunshine or driving rain. Nothing in between. And there are days like Tuesday where the forecast seems to change minute-by-minute.

As of this writing, Ken Griffey Jr. remains a free agent. And although I fully expect that to change in the next 24 hours and Junior will sign with the Braves – perhaps by the time I turn on the computer at dawn’s early light – the roller-coaster of “He’s A Brave, He’s Not A Brave” is just fitting, given what this franchise has been through this offseason.

It started with Jake Peavy in October. It reached the apex with Rafael Furcal in December. Now in February, Braves Nation sits waiting yet again for somebody to decide if they want to play for the Braves.

It wasn’t too long ago that players would climb over a pile of barbed wire, leaving money on the side of the road, to hang their hat in the Braves’ locker room. But three consecutive seasons of missing October baseball tends to dull the shine off the star.

Maybe that’s why the sudden emergence of The Kid last weekend as a potential salve for the gaping wound that was left field for the Braves in 2008 was met with such an emotional spark, a surge that wobbled through the fan base. Yes, we all know this isn’t Griffey circa 1997, but Griffey circa 2008 would be an upgrade over what the Braves got out of left field last season.

It’s the perfect fit, as I’ve wrote the past few days, Griffey and that smooth left-handed swing bashing right-handers, coupled with Matt Diaz, who wears out left-handed pitchers. Griffey, the aging veteran who still can play, still can contribute, getting the opportunity to play close to his Orlando home, to play in the city where his daughter’s AAU basketball team is based, play on a team that looks ready to contend.

Without one more power threat in the lineup, the Braves from an offensive standpoint would need a breakout season from somebody – be it Kelly Johnson or Casey Kotchman or Josh Anderson – to have the type of lineup needed to be a serious contender in the NL East. That, and oh yeah, for Jeff Francoeur to revisit his pre-2008 form.

But add in Griffey and the potential for 20 homers, 90 RBIs and a .280 average now that he’s healthy – the troublesome knee that slowed him down during the second half of last season now fixed – and you’ve got a solid offense that could turn into something spectacular if Johnson or Kotchman or Anderson raises their consistency at the plate.

Put Griffey and Diaz into the mix in left, and the Braves are right there with the Phillies and Mets. There. I said it. And I’m not saying it expecting the Griffey from yesteryear.

No, all the Braves need is for Griffey to do what he does against right-handers, for Diaz to pound leftys the way he did before a miserable 2008, and Atlanta is going to be right there for the duration of 2009.

But first, the Braves need Griffey to sign on the dotted line. That’s going to happen, folks, likely as soon as this morning.

My advice to you, good people of Braves Nation – get some sleep now. You’ll need it come August and September and, hopefully, October as well.

—30—

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